Keeping Your Cool This Fall

Sep 2026

September and October have a reputation for making investors uneasy. Historically, September has been one of the weakest months for U.S. stocks, while October has tended to bring above-average volatility. But seasonal tendencies are just that, tendencies, not predictions.
This September has already brought headlines about higher oil prices, labor-market uncertainty, and renewed inflation concerns. The lesson is simple: the calendar alone should never drive your investment decisions.

25 Years Later: A Lesson From 9/11
This September marks the 25th anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks. Above all, it is a time to remember the nearly 3,000 lives lost and the families affected.

U.S. stock markets remained closed for the rest of that week and reopened on September 17, 2001. At the time, fear was understandably enormous. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 14% during its first week back. Yet markets did not continue falling indefinitely. Stocks began recovering in late September, and the rebound continued through the fourth quarter as investors recognized that the economic consequences, while significant, were not as severe as initially feared.

The lesson is not that every decline will recover quickly. Rather, it is that making major portfolio decisions when uncertainty and emotion are at their highest can be particularly dangerous.

Why These Months Can Feel So Difficult
Market volatility can quickly turn investing from a financial exercise into an emotional one. Investors may feel compelled to:

  • Sell before conditions worsen
  • Move to cash and wait for “things to settle down”
  • Check their portfolios constantly
  • React to frightening headlines
  • Question a long-term strategy based on a few difficult weeks

Timing the market, knowing when to get out and when to get back in, is extraordinarily difficult, and missing part of a recovery can hurt long-term results.

What Should Investors Do Instead?
Focus on what you can control:

  • Stick with your investment plan. Your portfolio should reflect your goals, time horizon, and tolerance for market fluctuations.
  • Keep short-term needs in perspective. Money you’ll need soon generally shouldn’t depend on short-term market performance.
  • Rebalance when appropriate. Volatility can pull your portfolio away from its target allocation.
  • Avoid decisions based on headlines. I call this the CNBC Effect, the tendency to treat every headline as something you must act on immediately.
  • Review your risk tolerance. If ordinary declines cause real anxiety, your portfolio may be carrying too much risk.

Managing the Emotional Side of Investing
One of the hardest parts of successful investing is doing nothing when everything in you says to do something. Think: Don’t just do something, stand there!

Volatility is a normal part of investing. Historically, markets have recovered from downturns, although the timing is never predictable.

Looking Beyond September and October

As we move toward the end of 2026, resist reading too much into any single month. Stay focused on your plan, remain diversified, and keep your long-term goals in view.

Markets may be unpredictable. Your investment discipline doesn’t have to be.

This article is for educational purposes only and is not investment, tax, or legal advice. Have a question? Please consult your Bloom Advisors team and a qualified tax professional about your specific situation.

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